GTA 6 delay is good news for Nintendo and bad news for Star Wars | Here’s The Dring
2025 is likely to be another down year for the console game industry
You know, on Monday, I thought this was going to be a quiet week. We had our interview with Sam Lake, which I was proud of. And there was some things to talk about around Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 and Oblivion. But outside of that, with Summer Game Fest just over a month away, I was expecting a bit of a peaceful week.
But then Apple got a remarkable telling off from a US judge, in what looks to be a key moment for the mobile games market. Then Xbox raised the price of, well, everything. And now GTA 6 has been delayed. In the end, it’s turned out to be the busiest week for industry news and analysis I’ve had since starting The Game Business.
Anyway, let’s chat GTA shall we?
GTA 6 delay is a short-term blow for the console sector
After months of speculation, Grand Theft Auto 6 will not be launching in 2025. The game will now be on store shelves on May 26, 2026.
Analysts, who have all spent the last 24 hours changing their forecasts following price rises on Xbox hardware and software, will now be doing the same again. The expectation that 2025 would be a return to growth for the console game industry is now in real jeopardy.
The top line numbers may make for tough reading, but there are positives to be found from this delay.
The new spring release date is friendlier time of the year from an industry point-of-view. We do occasionally get big games in April and May, but it’s not like the Holiday sales window, which remains the most lucrative three months in the calendar. And it’s nice to see Rockstar return to its old release slot. During the Xbox 360 era, 2008’s Grand Theft Auto IV, 2010’s Red Dead Redemption, 2011’s LA Noire and 2012’s Max Payne 3 all launched within that time frame.
Of course, it’s possible next May would have been a bit busier, with companies targeting that window in the hope of avoiding the clash with GTA. But with Rockstar setting its date so early, there is plenty of time for companies to make adjustments.
And that brings me onto the key question: What does the rest of the industry do now? There are still some sizeable games due this year (outside of the usual sports titles and Call of Duty). Does Sony push Ghost of Yotei (due October 2) or Marathon (September 23) back a bit to give them some room? Will 2K Games move Mafia: The Old Country from ‘summer’ and into that Christmas window? There’s a chance for games to spread themselves out a bit here.
And what about the publishers we spoke to last month, who were planning to delay their games out of 2025 due to the impact of Grand Theft Auto 6? Has Rockstar’s announcement given them enough time to get things ready for this year? Might EA deliver Battlefield on this side of Christmas? They will all be hastily organising meetings behind the scenes, reviewing progress and asking questions over what’s possible.
And it’s not just the games companies that will be looking at this. Movies, TV shows, books… a launch the size of GTA will impact all forms of entertainment. Indeed, GTA 6 now launches in a busy month for pop culture, with Avengers: Doomsday due in cinemas May 1 and the Star Wars film The Mandalorian and Grogu scheduled for May 22. I do wonder if Disney might want to find a new date for the latter film.
The expectation that 2025 would be a return to growth for the console game industry is now in real jeopardy
One company that will clearly benefit from the delay is Nintendo. GTA 6 was destined to be a big driver of Xbox and PlayStation console sales this Holiday period, with the Rockstar game shifted back, Nintendo will feel it has a window almost to itself to establish Switch 2, especially with a new Pokémon game scheduled for the end-of-year period.
Of course, GTA is a more adult product compared with Pokémon and Nintendo generally. But the parents of today – the ones making the choice over which console to buy for the family – are the ones who grew up with Grand Theft Auto. The age ratings bodies might have something to say about it, but I legitimately believe there’s value in a GTA 6 + Astro Bot ‘Family’ PS5 console bundle. Plus, Nintendo does skew older these days. The GTA Trilogy pack, for instance, performed very well on Switch.
It is a blow to PlayStation, and the console industry in general, at least in the short term. Sony’s big opportunity/challenge remains upgrading customers from PS4 to PS5. It’s been an unusual generation in that so many of the big games on PS5 are playable on the previous machine, whether that’s titles like Call of Duty, or live-service games like Fortnite. Grand Theft Auto 6 was seen as a key moment to encourage users to move from one generation to the next, and drive growth that the whole console industry would benefit from.
That moment is still coming, of course, it’s just going to take a little longer.
Outside of the console space, accessories firms would also be eagerly anticipating GTA 6’s release, as it would certainly lead to increased sales of headsets and controllers. This delay, combined with the US tariffs, is a double blow for peripheral manufacturers.
The other sector that will be disappointed in the delay is the video game media. GTA 6’s launch would deliver a surge in traffic and readership, and therefore advertising revenue, for media outlets. This is another part of the business that is enduring some serious struggles, as we’ve seen this week with staff departures and redundancies at the likes of Polygon and Giant Bomb. The news that the big media moment of the year isn’t happening will require lower forecasts that will be tough to swallow.
And finally retailers, what’s left of them, were eyeing GTA 6 as a key moment to capitalise upon. In our interview with GAME a few weeks ago, the firm’s MD Nick Arran had highlighted the Rockstar game as a key release for them in 2025, as he felt it was sure to be a big physical product.
In the grand scheme of things, GTA 6’s delay is just that. 2026 will now be the key year for the console space instead. This moment is still coming. But with the looming threat of more tariffs, hardware price rises and now this, 2025 is not shaping up to be the year we had hoped for.