The hardest part, in my opinion, is that nowadays, hits seem to be bigger and bigger, while average games struggle more and more to perform decently.
More than Concord, it was Star Wars Outlaws that impressed me in that regard. Yes, there are plenty of explanations for its commercial disappointment, but I still tend to think this game would have done better ten years ago, before the era of 'Black Hole Games.'
Yes, industry needs hits. But now, if you're not a hit, you're probably a failure, there is no middle ground anymore.
From the writing/reporting, it definitely appears that for many big-studio games, the numbers need to be "a hit," are astronomical. And if you don't hit them, you're F'D. But, and this comes with a caveat the size of a Mini Countryman, the long tail on some of these certainly seems to lend itself to, if not "a hit," than doing pretty darn good. I wonder if SW Outlaws will be one, especially as they have been supported with fixes and their last DLC is apparently very good?
@Christopher Dring, sorry if this is an ignorant question, but when you're comparing YoY numbers (and really, it's the companies, I know), do you think it might be better if we go back to 2019 numbers? I continue to think that 2020/21 (Covid-era) numbers so skewed the industry that they're *STILL* paying the price, years on, and it's just not something we're going back to.
I also think that there are 2 other factors to look at right now, especially regarding hardware sales, that really skew perspective vs previous iterations:
1) I'm not sure we've seen a generation like this, if ever: Xbox is well, in a very weird place, given how much they're promoting subscription (would love to see PC subs vs XBone vs X/Sconsole subs); PS 5 is approx halfway through, but PS4 is very much ALIVE (especially due to PS+, Essential, Premium, etc), and PS 5 Pro is a thing, but doesn't seem to be selling much at all, right? Switch vs 1 (which tech wise was competing with XBone/PS4) is basically dead, so Switch 2 in the traditional sense is 4.5 years late, but sales wise is...fine? I don't really think we've had a game console generation quite like this before, unless you want to include portable systems as well, and that's really apples-to-orangutangs in my book.
2) Historically, at this point we would have seen or at least be waiting for price cuts, probably for this holiday season, for XBox and PS5 (especially with the PS5 Pro now on the market). Instead, XBox has raised all prices across the board and PS5 is up in several markets, although not the US. Meanwhile Switch 2 is pricier, but still less than current pricing for PS5 and XBox X, so well positioned for new buyers. Normally, as a new console, you'd see it coming in as the most expensive one on the block, and possibly at least one/both lowering prices to steal consumers on the fence about it. But NOPE!
Bonus 3) We are at an unprecedented time with all systems having backward compatibility, not only with physical media, but also "digitally," with so many older games that will work (PS4 games you can play on PS5) or have been remastered (not to mention all the older systems still out there that are still being used). These aren't books (closest comparison - reading speeds vary wildly, can go back and re-read often) or movies (1.5-2ish hours avg length) or any other pop-culture interest that the public has had before. There's a time-sink cost that I don't think the industry-as-a-whole has begun to acknowledge, let along grapple with.
Example - Platinuming the Final Fantasy remaster collection on my PS5 would take approximately 232 hours (https://screenrant.com/how-long-beat-final-fantasy-pixel-remaster-platinum/). Now, if I'm a grown ass adult with a job, some friends, a partner, occasionally does things other than plays video games - this collection of amazing games from 30+ years ago could take me over a month to play. And this is, essentially, sold as one game. HOW ON EARTH DOES THE INDUSTRY BEGIN TO DEAL WITH THIS MASSIVE POTENTIAL PROBLEM OF TOO MANY GAMES?
Good article, thank you!
The hardest part, in my opinion, is that nowadays, hits seem to be bigger and bigger, while average games struggle more and more to perform decently.
More than Concord, it was Star Wars Outlaws that impressed me in that regard. Yes, there are plenty of explanations for its commercial disappointment, but I still tend to think this game would have done better ten years ago, before the era of 'Black Hole Games.'
Yes, industry needs hits. But now, if you're not a hit, you're probably a failure, there is no middle ground anymore.
The bottom has fallen out of the market. Even a failure 5 - 10 years ago would hit a certain number. Now… there seems to be no floor
From the writing/reporting, it definitely appears that for many big-studio games, the numbers need to be "a hit," are astronomical. And if you don't hit them, you're F'D. But, and this comes with a caveat the size of a Mini Countryman, the long tail on some of these certainly seems to lend itself to, if not "a hit," than doing pretty darn good. I wonder if SW Outlaws will be one, especially as they have been supported with fixes and their last DLC is apparently very good?
@Christopher Dring, sorry if this is an ignorant question, but when you're comparing YoY numbers (and really, it's the companies, I know), do you think it might be better if we go back to 2019 numbers? I continue to think that 2020/21 (Covid-era) numbers so skewed the industry that they're *STILL* paying the price, years on, and it's just not something we're going back to.
I also think that there are 2 other factors to look at right now, especially regarding hardware sales, that really skew perspective vs previous iterations:
1) I'm not sure we've seen a generation like this, if ever: Xbox is well, in a very weird place, given how much they're promoting subscription (would love to see PC subs vs XBone vs X/Sconsole subs); PS 5 is approx halfway through, but PS4 is very much ALIVE (especially due to PS+, Essential, Premium, etc), and PS 5 Pro is a thing, but doesn't seem to be selling much at all, right? Switch vs 1 (which tech wise was competing with XBone/PS4) is basically dead, so Switch 2 in the traditional sense is 4.5 years late, but sales wise is...fine? I don't really think we've had a game console generation quite like this before, unless you want to include portable systems as well, and that's really apples-to-orangutangs in my book.
2) Historically, at this point we would have seen or at least be waiting for price cuts, probably for this holiday season, for XBox and PS5 (especially with the PS5 Pro now on the market). Instead, XBox has raised all prices across the board and PS5 is up in several markets, although not the US. Meanwhile Switch 2 is pricier, but still less than current pricing for PS5 and XBox X, so well positioned for new buyers. Normally, as a new console, you'd see it coming in as the most expensive one on the block, and possibly at least one/both lowering prices to steal consumers on the fence about it. But NOPE!
Bonus 3) We are at an unprecedented time with all systems having backward compatibility, not only with physical media, but also "digitally," with so many older games that will work (PS4 games you can play on PS5) or have been remastered (not to mention all the older systems still out there that are still being used). These aren't books (closest comparison - reading speeds vary wildly, can go back and re-read often) or movies (1.5-2ish hours avg length) or any other pop-culture interest that the public has had before. There's a time-sink cost that I don't think the industry-as-a-whole has begun to acknowledge, let along grapple with.
Example - Platinuming the Final Fantasy remaster collection on my PS5 would take approximately 232 hours (https://screenrant.com/how-long-beat-final-fantasy-pixel-remaster-platinum/). Now, if I'm a grown ass adult with a job, some friends, a partner, occasionally does things other than plays video games - this collection of amazing games from 30+ years ago could take me over a month to play. And this is, essentially, sold as one game. HOW ON EARTH DOES THE INDUSTRY BEGIN TO DEAL WITH THIS MASSIVE POTENTIAL PROBLEM OF TOO MANY GAMES?
There’s a lot here.
One thing I’d note is when it comes to players, in a lot of markets, the industry is down compared even with 2019
Thanks, Christopher - yes, I had some thoughts ;)
RE: 2019 - I wasn't sure if it was or not. Well, that sucks.