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In This Edition
- Multi-format success
- Nintendo Switch 2 US performance
- Donkey Kong Bananza sales!
Hello and welcome back! If you like market data chat, then this week’s edition of The Game Business Show and Newsletter is for you.
This is one of my favourite shows because our guest host is Mat Piscatella, the analyst and games lead at data firm Circana. I’ve wanted to get him on the Show since day one (he did do a talk at The Game Business Live, you should check it out), and he doesn’t disappoint. We discuss market data, Donkey Kong, game pricing, the multi-platform strategy, and, of course, Nintendo Switch 2.
You can watch the full episode above. I’ve also pulled out some of the key stories from this week’s episode below (if reading is more your thing).
I hope you enjoy it!
The games industry’s multi-format future is working, says Circana
We’re “way beyond” the point where people will swap game consoles for exclusive games, says Circana games boss Mat Piscatella.
Speaking on The Game Business Show after the release of the latest Circana market data for the US, Piscatella discussed the success of Forza Horizon 5 and Stellar Blade.
Microsoft’s Forza Horizon 5 was published on PS5 in April, having initially launched in 2021 for Xbox and PC. The PS5 release helped the game reach No.3 in May in the US, and was still going strong at No.6 in June. It’s now the 11th best-selling game of the year in the country and one of the best-selling PS5 games of the year worldwide.
Meanwhile, Stellar Blade was a PS5 exclusive from 2024 that transitioned to PC in June this year. As a result, the Sony game rose from No.185 in May to No.5 in June in the US charts.
“We’ve been seeing this now for about a year or so,” Piscatella said. “Every month you’re seeing a game pop up that’s been gone for a while. And you’re like, how did that happen? Well it came out on another platform.
“People who buy a hardware system these days, they’re doing it because of the ecosystem, because of their friends list. You’re not going to get people to transition consoles because of exclusives anymore. We’re way beyond that point.
“People are entrenched into their systems. And bringing the content to them is the only way to win. And that is what everyone is doing, except for Nintendo they tend to do their own thing. Even they could benefit from it, but of course they won’t, that’s not their MO.”
Although Nintendo sticks with exclusives, it’s worth noting that The Pokémon Company is increasingly releasing its games across mobile and Switch platforms, including the upcoming Pokémon Champions and the newly released Pokémon Friends.
Piscatella believes that in a market as competitive as this one, going to where players are is proving essential.
“In the US at least, the Top Ten live service games suck up half of all gaming time every month, and every other game has got to fight for the remainder. So, bringing that content to where people are is the only way you’re going to be able to win in an environment like we’re looking at right now.
“Forza being this strong… that’s great. That really bodes well for its next iteration, if they come out day one across systems. Every game finding its way to more stores and ecosystems… that is how you’re going to survive and win.”
Xbox is expected to announce more game ports to other platforms, including Nintendo Switch 2 and PS5, in the coming weeks. Meanwhile, PlayStation is bringing its hit shooter Helldivers 2 to Xbox in August.
Is Nintendo Switch 2 price and line-up good enough? We’ll find out this holiday.
The biggest test for Nintendo Switch 2 is whether it can transition to the mass market gift buyer, after delivering huge launch sales worldwide.
That’s according to Circana games boss Mat Piscatella, who revealed that Switch 2 has become the fastest-selling games console in US history, with 1.6 million units sold in its first month. It beat the previous best, the PS4 from November 2013, by half a million units. The original Switch took four months to reach this number.
Yet this success is down to Nintendo’s ability to deliver a huge number of consoles to retailers. The real test for Switch 2, its price point and games line-up, is whether it can reach more mass market consumers over the holiday sales period.
“We can conclude from the high sales of Switch 2 at launch is that they made a lot of Switch 2 units,” Piscatella told us. “Great start, not taking anything away from it. They were super confident. They put their money where their mouth was, and said ‘we believed we can sell this, we’re going to take the knees out of the scalper and secondary market, we are going to make sure if people want a Switch 2, they can get one from us at MSRP’. Or thereabouts. And for the most part, they succeeded in doing that. That’s fantastic. That’s wonderful.
“But ultimately, the launch sales of hardware doesn’t often correlate to the lifetime sales. We’ve had devices that have come out with incredible early sales that have fallen off, and other consoles and devices that have come out with weak sales and have ended up being the best-selling systems of all time. But hey, a record-setting launch like this… I don’t think anyone is going to be upset with that or say it’s a bad thing. It’s just tough right now to come away with any long-term conclusions or projections, although this is a hell of a good early read.”
“The range of error on any forecast now in the video game space, and the US in particular, is the highest it’s ever been”
Piscatella and Circana estimate that the Switch 2 will sell 4.3 million units this year. However, he admits the margin for error in predictions right now has never been higher given the economic challenges facing US consumers.
“[The launch] is basically where I wanted it to be. Maybe a bit better than I was hoping for. But sticking with the 4.3 million number. The price point and content slate is not a problem for the day one buyer, but that mass market gift buyer in the holiday window might be a different story.
“And of course, in the US market in particular, all that uncertainty around pricing and the tariff situation and where people are financially are going to play into that as well. So, we’ll have to see. The range of error on any forecast now in the video game space, and the US in particular, is the highest it’s ever been. And it’s always been high. It’s always been a very difficult market to project. And now given all the particular factors impacting the US in particular, it’s even more unpredictable.
“The enthusiast audience certainly showed up Day One. Now we have to see if they can successful transition to the mass market gift buyer. That’s the next test.”
US video game market remains strong, despite economic uncertainty
US data firm Circana says it’s not seeing a drop in the demand for video games, despite uncertain economic conditions in the US.
Games analyst Mat Piscatella spoke at The Game Business Live last month about anxious consumer sentiment around rising costs, tariffs and the prospects of a recession. Using consumer data, he revealed that US buyers are expecting to reduce their spend on entertainment in 2025.
“We’re not seeing a pullback in demand as much as I feared given all of the crazy market conditions in the US right now”
However, the Circana June data shows that the games market is maintaining its size, despite these headwinds.
“The hope going into this year was that a combination of Grand Theft Auto 6 and Switch 2 would help get the market back to growth. A market that hasn’t grown in terms of its overall size since 2021,” Piscatella told us on today’s Show. “Losing Grand Theft Auto 6 out of the year was painful, it likely means we won’t get back to growth overall.
“The good news out of [June] beyond the initial success of Switch 2, is that everything else from a market perspective, a consumer demand perspective, is where we want it to be in terms of maintaining size. That doesn’t mean everyone is going to benefit equally, that doesn’t mean that the same dollars are available to everyone, but we’re not seeing a pullback in demand as much as I feared given all of the crazy market conditions in the US right now. So from that respect, I’m feeling pretty good about where we are in terms of the market.
“The consumer is here, the enthusiast player is here, they’re spending, and that creates opportunity for people to capitalise on it.”
Donkey Kong Bananza is the biggest DK game launch in UK history (probably)
Donkey Kong Bananza has delivered a strong launch in the UK, and likely delivered the biggest opening week in the franchise history.
According to data supplied by NielsenIQ, Donkey Kong Country Returns on Wii from 2010 is the biggest week one for the series, with sales a few thousand more than what Bananza achieved. However, NielsenIQ doesn’t have any direct sales from Nintendo (including the eShop and Nintendo’s online store), and the firm’s games boss Dorian Bloch says “if we add in Nintendo direct sales on Donkey Kong Bananza, that would make it No.1.”
Where things are less clear is whether it was the single biggest week for a Donkey Kong game in the UK. Donkey Kong Country Returns on Wii had a decent launch, but its biggest sales week actually took place during week two. In fact, Donkey Kong Country Returns’ second week is 80% bigger than Donkey Kong Bananza’s first week (excluding direct sales).
Of course, Donkey Kong Country Returns launched when the Wii had a much higher install base than what Switch 2 has now. The real test for Bananza is how strong the sales continue to be beyond launch and into Switch 2’s crucial first Christmas.
Donkey Kong games with the biggest sales week (UK, Physical Only)
1. Donkey Kong Country Returns (Wii) – 2010
2. Donkey Kong Bananza (Switch 2) – 2025
3. Donkey Country Country (SNES) – 1994
4. Donkey Kong 64 (N64) - 1999
5. Mario vs Donkey Kong (Switch) – 2024
6. Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze (Switch) – 2018
7. Donkey Kong Country 2 (SNES) – 1995/1996
8. Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze (Wii U) – 2014
9. Mario vs Donkey Kong: Mini-Land Mayhem (DS) – 2011
10. Donkey Kong Country Returns HD (Switch) - 2025
Source: NielsenIQ/GfK Entertainment, Dorian Bloch
Meanwhile…
The Outer Worlds 2 from Xbox, plus other first-party Xbox games this year, will continue to be priced at $69.99 due to ‘current market conditions’. The firm had previously announced that it would be raising prices on full priced games to $79.99 from this Holiday.
Slocap and Kepler’s football title Rematch has now reached five million players worldwide.
Epic Games has hit out at the UK competitions regulator over its roadmap for the coming year. The CMA is choosing not to prioritize opening the mobile ecosystem to alternative app stores in 2025, which Epic says will mean it “can’t bring the Epic Games Store to iOS in the UK this year (if ever)”, and that “Fortnite's return to iOS in the UK is now uncertain.”
Ubisoft has posted disappointing results for Q1 due to a lower-than-expected performance of its live service game Rainbow Six: Siege. Ubisoft says this was because of “significant disruptions due to technical pricing issues, which have now been identified and addressed.”
Ubisoft has also announced that Assassin’s Creed Shadows has hit five million players, in-line with its own expectations. The game will also launch on additional platforms (widely expected to be Nintendo Switch 2).
Sticking with Ubisoft once more, it’s announced it is restructuring its business into ‘Creative Houses’. This includes the new division it has set-up with Tencent that oversees Assassin’s Creed, Far Cry and Tom Clancy. The new Creative Houses will “allow for enhanced quality, focus, autonomy and accountability,” Ubisoft says.
The Chinese Room, the UK developer behind Still Wakes The Deep, has become independent once again. The firm has bought itself out from parent company Sumo Group with the help of VC firm Hiro Capital. Sumo has shifted away from creating original games to focus on development services, including co-development and work-for-hire.
Free-to-play shooter Splitgate 2 is returning to its beta state after a disappointing reception from players, developer 1047 has announced. The move has resulted in some job losses, while the original Splitgate is also being taken offline due to the servers costing the firm “hundreds of thousands of pounds”
That’s it for today! We are back on Tuesday with our next feature Show and Newsletter. See you then.
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